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APPENDIX
E
EXAMPLES
OF OTHER HARDWARE
ESTIMATING
MODELS
FROM
THE SPACE SYSTEMS
APPENDIX
E
EXAMPLES
OF OTHER HARDWARE ESTIMATING MODELS
OTHER
HARDWARE MODELS
Advance Missions Cost Model NASA JSC
Aerospace Small Satellite Cost Model The Aerospace Corp.
EHF/
Hypercost NASA
JPL
Launch Vehicle Cost Model TECOLOTE
NASCOM NASA
MARSHALL
Non Nuclear Power NASA LeRC
Nuclear Space Power NASA LeRC
Parametric Cost Model Parametric Consultants/England
Passive Sensor Cost Model USAF SMC/
SCEEDOS USAF
SMC
Sensat Owl
Wise Laboratory
Solid Rocket Motor Cost Model TECOLOTE
STACEM AF
Astronautics Lab
TRANSCOST Deutsche
Aerospace
Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model USAF SMC
Some examples follow.
Title: Advance
Missions Cost Model (
Purpose: To predict development, recurring and
mission operations costs of future space systems, including launch vehicles,
spacecraft and human explorations missions.
Applicability: The
Model Description: The
Status/Availability: The AMCM is complete and is periodically
updated. The latest release of the development model is Version 4.1 dated July
1992. The mission operations segment of the model was last updated in November
1986. Papers describing the model are available from the author; Kelley Cyr of
NASA JSC. A personal computer version of the model that runs with Microsoft
Excel is also being developed.
Input Variables: - Development Quantity
- Production
Quantity
- Unit
Dry Weight
- Specification
value (a numeric value representing the operating type and mission environment)
- Initial
Operating Capability (IOC) year
- Block
Number
- Difficulty
Factor
- Number
of Years of Operations
Output: Development, production and operations
costs in millions of dollars. For space systems, the cost estimates are for
prime contractor cost only and do not include fee, program support, or other
government costs. For non-space systems, the costs are all inclusive.
Data Source: A large historical 50-year database of land,
water, air and space systems. The data includes 54 spacecrafts, 22 space
transportation systems, 61 aircraft, 86 missiles, 29 ships, and 18 ground
vehicles. All of the data points are from programs that were completed through
IOC.
Point of Contact: Kelley Cyr, National Aeronautics and Space
Administration,
User Community: Cost Analysts, Project Managers, Systems
Engineers
Principle Ground Rules/ The AMCM development model is primarily
based on raw
Assumption/Limitations: data from contractors, government reports
and published sources. The original data was adjusted to constant year 1991
dollars using various inflation factors. The basic model does not distinguish
between non-recurring and recurring cost because of the difficulties associated
with separating the costs in development programs with very small production
runs. The recurring cost of the system can be computed from the CER’s by
calculating the marginal cost. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) for
the model is approximately 45%.
Software: The CER’s can be easily programmed in any
language or spreadsheet. A Microsoft Excel add-in application is being
developed.
Equipment: The Microsoft Excel add-in application will be
able to run on any platform that supports Microsoft Excel.
CER Format: Cost = a • Qb • Wc
• dS • e(1/(IOC-1900)) • Bf •gD
Q is the quantity
W is the weight
s is the Specification
IOC is the IOC year
B is the Block Number
D is the Difficulty Factor
a-g are model parameters
Title: Aerospace Small Satellite Cost Model (SSCM)
Purpose: To evaluate cost of designing, building,
and testing a modern small satellite.
Model Description: SSCM estimates the first-unit development and
production cost by computing a weighted average of parametric CER’s derived
from actual Small-satellite cost and technical databases. Included are
production, integration, assembly, and testing. Excluded are any payload
development or production costs.
Status/Availability: SSCM is currently in a test-and-evaluation
configuration; a more elaborate program with more user features is forthcoming.
The current version is available to government agencies and participating
small-satellite contractors.
Input Variables:
Output: Development cost range and cost
sensitivities.
Data Source: Proprietary data from variety of
small-satellite programs such as REX, ALEXIS, STEP, APEX, RADCAL, and LOSAT-X.
Point of Contact: Erik Burgess, Resource and Requirements
Analysis Department, the Aerospace Corporation, (310) 336-4148.
User Community: Project Managers and Cost Analysts.
Principle Ground
Rules/ SSCM estimates but costs only;
payload development/
Assumptions/Limitations production costs must be separately
determined.
Software: SSCM is currently hosted in a stand-alone
compiled program that can operate on any IBM-compatible computer. It requires
only a 360K-byte driver and DOS 2.0 or higher.
Equipment: See above.
CER Format: Cost as explicit functions of input
variables.
Test
Results/Evaluation: Validated against
several small-satellite development programs.
Title: Aerospace Launch Vehicle Cost Model (LVCM)
Purpose: To evaluate cost of existing, modified,
new launch vehicle designs.
Model Description: LVCM determines RDT&E cost by subsystem,
average unit operations cost by subsystem for each stage, total vehicle
life-cycle cost, fiscal year funding requirements for overall vehicle program.
Status/Availability: Internal Aerospace Corporation use only.
Input Variables: Launch site characteristics (site
location, relative number of launchers from each site); propellant type;
weight, quantity pre vehicle, design status and previous quantity produced of
each of the following subsystems: Structure, Thermal Control, Reentry
Protection, Landing System, Electrical Power, Electrical Wiring, Guidance and
Control, Data Handling, Instrumentation, Communication, Propulsion, Engines,
Reaction Control Propulsion Hardware, Interstage Adapter and Payload Fairing.
Output: LVCM produces both numerical and
graphical results. Major output is life-cycle cost estimate for complete
vehicle broken down by principal categories of RDT&E, Investment and
Operations, which are further broken down by each stage, fairing, launch
operations, flight operations, recovery (and refurbishment) operations, spares,
software, facilities, system engineering and technical directions and
government support.
Data Source: Proprietary data from variety of DoD launch
vehicle programs.
Point of Contact: Ronald Hovden, Resource and Requirements
Analysis Department, the Aerospace Corporation, (310) 336--5832..
User Community: Aerospace Corporation Project Managers and
Cost Analysts.
Principle Ground
Rules/ Required detailed knowledge of
input parameters.
Assumptions/Limitations
Software/Equipment: Written in FORTRAN 77, currently hosted
on IBM mainframe. Inputs are selected via an interactive, panel-driven
front-end. Lahey PC version is under development, but not yet fully functional.
CER Format: Cost as explicit functions of input
variables.
Test
Results/Evaluation: Validated against a
number of existing DoD launch vehicles.
Title: Unmanned Spacecraft Cost Model, Sixth
Edition, Nov 1988 (USCM6)
Purpose: To estimate total Space Segment Cost including
non-recurring and recurring cost of components as well as subsystems for earth
orbiting unmanned spacecraft.
Publisher: USAF, Space Division, Los Angeles AFB
Model Description: (see attached schematic)
By using physical descriptions of
components, the model’s CER’s develop component NR and REC cost. Other CER’s
develop support costs such as Program Management, Systems Engineering, Data,
etc.
Input Variables: component weights
number of sensors
volume, design life, BOL power
number of solar cells, battery
capacity
power output, analog electronics
weight
total spacecraft dry weight
Output: NR and T1 cost for components
NR and T1 cost for integration and
assembly
NR and T1 cost for ferrite devices
NR AGE; launch and orbital ops support
NR and T1 for Program Management,
Systems Engineering, Systems Test and Data.
Data Source: The database consists of 9 military, 6 NASA,
and 3 commercial satellite programs with start dates between 1964 and 1979
Point of Contact: Publisher
User Community: From managers interested in top-level
estimates to analysts needing detailed information on CER development.
Principle Ground
Rules/ Estimates are in 1986 dollars
excluding fee. Costs cover all NR
Assumptions/Limitations and REC Spacecraft cost including launch
operations (relating to S/C only) and orbital support.
Equipment: No equipment other than a calculator is
needed. Macros are provided for uses on PCs running LOTUS 1-2-3.
CER Format: Both single and multivariate using
linear and log/log relationships. An interesting not is the introduction of the
"
Test
Results/Evaluation: TBD
UNMANNED
SPACE VEHICLE COST MODEL 6TH EDITION
MODEL
NONRECURRING COST FLOW
INPUTS
Weight
Sensor Types/Wt
Torque Methods/Wt /Vol
Wt/BOL Power
Wt*BOL Pwr/# cells
Wt*BOL Pwr
Wt*BOL Pwr
Wt*BOL Pwr/Batt Cap
S/C $
Pwr Output/TWTA/Subsys
Weight/Design Life Space
Weight Vehicle +
Weight/Design Life
AGE $
Weight/Comm Mission
Wt/Orbit/Subsys
Dry Wt/Stabilization Type S/C +
Comm +
I&A $
Pwr Output/TWTA/Subsys
Weight/Design Life
Weight
Comm $
Weight/Design Life
Weight/Comm Mission
Wt/Orbit/Subsys
UNMANNED
SPACE VEHICLE COST MODEL 6TH EDITION
MODEL
RECURRING COST FLOW
INPUTS
Space Veh Dry Wt/Mission
Weight/Manner
Sensor Types, Wt
Vol/Design Life/Wt
Wt/Manned
Area/BOL Pwr/# cells
$
Wt*BOL Pwr
Wt*BOL Pwr
Wt*BOL Pwr
Weight
Weight/Sync Orbit
Weight/Output Power
Suite Weight
Weight
Total Impulse
+ Quantity
Weight
Weight/Sync Orbit
$
Weight/Output Power
Component Power
Suite Weight
Weight
Space Veh Dry Wt $
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